Australia Weather News

Australia's Anzac Day weather is looking variable this year, from showers and thunderstorms in the east, to a tropical low in the north, and a chilly dawn service in the west.

Some of the heaviest rain and even a few thunderstorms will land over two of our most populated regions, including around Brisbane and Melbourne — and while the rain will mean several wet commemoration services, it also raises hopes of drought relief in Victoria.

Sydney could also see a brief storm on Friday, before a weekend soaking arrives on Saturday and Sunday which may deliver close to 100 millimetres.

Despite the grey skies and rain this Anzac Day, the eastern states will remain pleasantly warm for late April thanks to a northerly airstream from the tropics.

However, winds from the opposite direction, a cold southerly, will lead to the lowest temperatures in six months and a noticeably chilly dawn service in parts of Western Australia.

Where will the rain fall on Anzac Day?

Inclement weather this Friday is thanks to four separate systems, which will combine to generate a risk of rain in every state.

Let's start with the east coast where heavy downpours have already drenched New South Wales this week.

Parts of the Illawarra and South Coast collected more than 100mm from Monday to Wednesday, but the heaviest rain has now shifted up the coast near the Queensland border.

The most widespread showers will again impact south-east Queensland and northern NSW on Friday as moist onshore winds feed into a trough near the coast.

Rain totals during the next 48 hours will average about 10 to 50mm from the Sunshine Coast to Taree, although a few pockets of around 100mm are likely right near the border.

This will result in a high chance of showers for Brisbane on Friday and a possible thunderstorm, although with some luck the heaviest rain will ease just before dawn.

The Bureau of Meteorology forecast a temperature range of 18 to 26 degrees Celsius — near average for April.

Further south, only isolated showers are likely for central NSW — Sydney is a 50 per cent chance of picking up rain, although showers are more likely after the completion of morning commemoration services.

The odd storm is also possible around Sydney due to warm and humid conditions with a forecast of 17 to 25C — 2C above average for April.

To the west, another system worth watching is a trough of low pressure drifting over the eastern inland which should generate a band of rain and storms from western NSW, through western and central Victoria, down to northern Tasmania.

An average fall of 5 to 20mm is predicted under the band, meaning a soggy Anzac Day is ahead for Melbourne where rain, and possibly storms, is likely intermittent through both the morning and afternoon.

While April rain would normally lead to cool conditions in Melbourne, northerly winds have driven a relatively warm forecast of 17 to 23C, which is a few degrees above normal for April.

It's unclear whether or not Hobart will catch the southern edge of the rainband, but north-westerly winds will lead to temperatures around 4 to 5C above average for April with a forecast of 14 to 21C.

Canberra though will be positioned between the two eastern rain systems and is therefore looking dry.

The capital can expect a pleasantly mild day with a forecast low of 8C, above average for April, and a high of 24C which is 4C above average.

Further west, a weakening area of low pressure will move east across South Australia, however a lack of moisture will result in only isolated light showers.

Adelaide has only 30 per cent chance of seeing a shower with a warm temperature range of 16 to 26C — around 3 to 4C above the April average.

While light showers will also splash the south coast of WA, the west coast is looking mostly sunny, although the combination of clear skies and southerly winds will lead to a chilly minimum of 9C in Perth, which is 5C below average.

Perth's forecast high of 22C is 3C below average, a temperature which would equal the city's coldest day so far this year.

Most of northern and central Australia can expect sunny weather on Anzac Day, however a weak tropical low and trough will trigger areas of showers across Cape York Peninsula and parts of the Top End.

Darwin has a standard April forecast of 23 to 33C with a slight chance of a shower, more likely in the afternoon and evening — again good timing for dry morning services.

Drought relief for Victoria and southern NSW amid weekend rain

The Anzac Day rainband over the south-east will spread slowly east this weekend near the movement of a low-pressure system, eventually bringing rain to every corner of NSW and Victoria.

What's critical for farmers though is not whether it will rain, but how much will fall.

Since the majority of the precipitation will be in the form of showers, totals will remain variable even over a small distance.

The general model consensus is an average fall of around 5 to 30mm for western and central Victoria, and most of NSW.

Parts of eastern Victoria and areas right near the SA border may receive below 5mm, however a developing Tasman low on Sunday could lead to greater than 50mm along the NSW central and southern coast, including around Sydney.

Some models even indicate 100mm soaking Sydney this weekend — around a month's worth of rain.

Showers may actually linger around Sydney through most of next week in a similar pattern to May last year when the city recorded 13 consecutive days of rain.

The weekend will also bring a change to cooler southerly winds across south-east states, a switch which will cause temperatures to return to near average after a prolonged spell of unseasonable warmth this month.