Australia Weather News

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred's two-week journey through the Coral Sea is nearly over, however the most intense impacts are still ahead for most areas.

Once again, overnight modelling shows changes; both a further delay as Alfred's erratic path continues and a shift north with torrential falls and major flooding now also a high risk across the southern Wide Bay/Burnett and Sunshine Coast.

However, Alfred's influence will also spread west and south this weekend, and flood watches have been issued for the New South Wales northern slopes and ranges.

Here is an updated guide on Tropical Cyclone Alfred's future movement, and a day-by-day outline of the weather and impacts to expect on the ground.

Saturday

Alfred's position and strength:Alfred is likely to slowly cross the coast as an ex-tropical cyclone.

Winds, and therefore seas and swells, are now slowly abating, with Alfred weakening below cyclone strength, although erosion and high tides will continue in some areas this weekend.

However, the threat of heavy rain well after Alfred weakens will persist for days due to the system's slow movement, although the heaviest rain will now not arrive until later on Saturday, and has also shifted further north.

From tonight, dangerous 6-hour totals may reach 250 millimetres near and south of the system centre — especially around the southern Wide Bay/Burnett, Sunshine Coast as well as Brisbane and possibly the Gold Coast, if a more southern track is taken.

Torrential falls of less intensity are also possible across the Northern Rivers and Mid North Coast north of around Port Macquarie.

By late Saturday, the rain will easily pass the threshold for flooding, especially considering the catchments are now wet and rivers are already rising.

As Alfred moves west, rain will also spread to the adjacent ranges.

Sunday

Alfred's position and strength:On Sunday, the remnants of Alfred are likely to be tracking over southern inland Queensland.

With a further delay in Alfred moving south, Sunday's rain is now likely to peak in many areas.

Those totals may again climb into the hundreds of millimetres, including falls in south-east Queensland of up to 250mm in 6 hours and 450mm in 24 hours.

In some areas, which are already experiencing major flooding, event totals will now be well over 500mm or even near 1 metre for localised pockets.

Heavy rain and flooding will also continue in north-east NSW, but most likely below the intensity seen north of the border.

At some point on Sunday, heavier falls will also spread to the ranges. And by midnight, Sunday event totals may reach around 50mm east of a line from Stanthorpe to Glen Innes to Armidale while parts of the western ranges pick up more than 50mm.

Rain and thunderstorms will also spread south through western and central-west NSW, with pockets of flash flooding possible.

Monday

Alfred's position and strength:The remnants of Alfred will track slowly south into NSW.

Widespread rain should spread south through eastern NSW, with the heaviest falls from the north-west Slopes to Sydney.

The ongoing rain over the northern slopes and ranges should have now triggered numerous flood warnings.

An accelerated path south on Monday should finally allow rain to ease over Queensland and northern NSW, although showers and storms will continue, including more localised heavy falls.

While rain is easing over the worst-hit regions, river levels will still be peaking for several days.

From Wednesday, an ongoing humid and unstable atmosphere will trigger showers and thunderstorms but the heaviest rain should have eased.