Australia Weather News

Tropical Cyclone Alfred is likely to become one of the most significant weather events in Australia's recent history, forecast to bring severe weather across several days.

Already this week, as Alfred gathered steam offshore, it has pounded the coast with waves in excess of 12 metres, and has soaked the Barrington Tops with more than 200 millimetres of rain.

Alfred is currently a category two tropical cyclone, which is defined as a storm with winds around the eye gusting between 125 and 164 kilometres per hour.

Here is detailed information on Tropical Cyclone Alfred's future movement based on modelling from Wednesday evening, and a day-by-day outline of the weather and impacts to expect on the ground as the cyclone tracks west onto the coast and eventually over the eastern inland.

Thursday

Alfred's position and strength — a slow track west towards the southern Queensland coast as a category 2 cyclone.

The gradual increase in winds and rain experienced on Wednesday will continue along the northern NSW and southern Queensland coast today.

Gales are likely from about Grafton and Double Island Point, meaning gusts over 90km/h, while closer to the Queensland/NSW border, including parts of Brisbane, gusts could exceed 125km/h by the evening if Alfred comes within about 100km of the coast.

Winds of this strength can topple trees and even cause minor house damage.

Rain may become torrential through today — again, depending on Alfred's vicinity to the coast — with the greatest threat south of the eye where the winds are onshore.

Twenty-four-hour totals could exceed 100mm across the Gold Coast, Northern Rivers and inland Mid North Coast if Alfred takes a faster track, enough to trigger both flash and river flooding.

North of the eye, rainfall will rapidly decline in intensity due to drier offshore westerly winds.

Alfred's wide field of offshore gales will also maintain huge waves, with maximum heights well above 10 metres on both sides of the border, which when combined with high tides will lead to ongoing beach erosion and coastal inundation.

Friday

Alfred's position and strength — a slow track west onto the far southern Queensland coast as a category 2 cyclone.

As Alfred makes landfall, the intensity of most impacts will reach a maximum. Critically, the most dangerous side of Alfred is to the south where winds are easterly — the same direction as the storm movement, which compounds speeds.

When the core crosses the coast, wind gusts could peak at close to 150km/h — that's strong enough to cause roof damage, decimate crops, and bring down large trees.

Thankfully, the destructive gusts are likely to be confined to a small region within a 150km radius south from the eye.

Further north and south, damaging gusts from 90 to 124km/h should continue to about Grafton and the Sunshine Coast.

Rainfall should also start to peak on Friday, including six-hour totals up to 250mm, again most likely just to the south of the eye around the Gold Coast and Northern Rivers.

That's enough rain to trigger life-threatening flash flooding, while major river flooding should also commence with 24-hour totals up to 400mm near the border.

For the Mid North Coast, hundreds of millimetres is likely on Friday, resulting in a flood threat down to the Manning River that runs through Taree.

As Alfred moves west, the rain will may also spread to the NSW northern ranges and southern Darling Downs with well over 50mm possible as far west as Stanthorpe, Glen Innes, and Armidale

Damaging surf and coastal erosion will persist, and coastal flooding from high tides will be significant if landfall coincides with high tide.

Saturday

Alfred's position and strength — it should have weakened to a tropical low over the inland (although some modelling delays landfall until Friday night).

Winds and therefore seas and swells will abate as Alfred moves inland, however, the threat of heavy rain from decaying cyclones can last for days if a system remains slow moving.

Modelling shows rain accumulations on Saturday of at least 100mm are still possible from Brisbane to the NSW Mid North Coast, and like Friday, localised six-hour totals may exceed 200mm and 24-hour totals may hit close to 400mm.

Heavy falls will also continue on the adjacent ranges, and 48-hour totals could now exceed 100mm for much of the Darling Down and Northern Tablelands

The ongoing heavy rain across already flooded regions will exacerbate river levels in many areas.

Sunday

Alfred's position and strength behaviour — the storm is likely to be tracking south over inland NSW as a decaying low but this track may be delayed

Days after a cyclone is declassified, they can still bring heavy rain and an accelerated path south on Sunday will spread widespread rain through NSW and possibly into northern Victoria.

While a track south is good news for south-east Queensland and north-east NSW, unfortunately, some modelling shows Alfred stalling, a worst-case scenario that would lead to further heavy rain over already flooded catchments.