Australia Weather News

Nearly half of Victoria is at an increased risk of fire activity this summer, according to a seasonal bushfire outlook from the National Council for Fire and Emergency Services (AFAC).

The report said a lack of rainfall across most of western and north-eastern Victoria, parts of greater Melbourne, the Mornington Peninsula and south-west Gippsland had resulted in more potential bushfire fuel and an "increased chance of fires in these areas".

A dry 18-months in south-west Victoria has also resulted in more fuel within forests, making it easier for fires to start and spread, according to the report.

Deputy coordinator of the National Emergency Management Agency's Emergency Management and Response Group, Joe Buffone, said the mapped risk took into account fuel loads, population density, and the resources available to respond.

"The areas that are highlighted in Victoria in particular are relatively high risk," he said.

When asked how the risk compared to the 2019-2020 bushfire season, which resulted in the catastrophic fires now known as Black Summer, Mr Bufone said it was "unlikely" the state would experience a season of similar scale.

But he cautioned that it would depend on how much rain came.

"If we get continual heat over two or three weeks in January and February then there's a risk of significant fires," Mr Buffone said.

"[With Black Summer] there was 3,000 kilometres of fire front on the east coast — I think it's unlikely we'll experience something of that significance but locally, and in those areas, there is a risk of increased fire."

Victoria has already experienced bushfire in the state's west this month as summer approaches.

Summer preparations

In preparation for summer, 54 firefighting aircraft have been positioned across the state.

The fleet includes a mix of water bombing, air supervision, and air intelligence gathering aircraft, as well as two large air tankers.

Two Aircrane firefighting helicopters are also expected to join in this year's potential fire response, after serving in North America.

Karl Braganza from the Bureau of Meteorology said while a "wet" December had been predicted, January and February were expected to be dry.

Mr Bufone also urged people to be aware of increases in local populations, as holiday-makers visited popular tourist spots like the Grampians in regional Victoria.

He warned holiday-makers to research the fire risk in unfamiliar areas and listen to local emergency services.

"Please if you're moving into those areas, be aware of the risk — enjoy the environment but be aware," Mr Bufone said.

The Country Fire Authority (CFA) said the risk of vegetation fires had increased in recent years.

Vegetation fires jumped more than 50 per cent during the 2023/24 fire danger period, between October 1 2023 and April 1 2024.

CFA crews responded to 2,145 vegetation fires in that period, including grass, bush and farmland across Victoria, compared to 1,415 incidents the summer before.

A CFA spokesperson said investigations revealed that many incidents were caused by avoidable factors.

Bushfire survival plans key

CFA chief officer Jason Heffernan told ABC Statewide Drive that recent heavy rains across the state would not dampen concerns for bushfire probabilities this summer.

"The irony is not lost on me that we're talking about bushfires in summer and releasing the summer outlook on the back of two days of quite substantial rain [but] that dryness that we saw led to the dying off of vegetation," he said.

"That vegetation is dead, no amount of rain will bring that back to life so while we have seen rain, that rain will dissipate and will evaporate and those fuels, those dead fuels, will become available again to burn.

"What we are seeing from the bureau, however, is a likelihood of summer rain — so it probably won't be beyond the realms of possibility to see fires occurring in one part of the state and, like we did yesterday, storms in another."

Mr Heffernan said the CFA and Forest Fire Management Victoria had used the dry weather in the last few months to accelerate and exceed their planned burning targets.

"So for those communities of Horsham, Bendigo, Ballarat, Warrnambool, Portland, but even from Frankston all the way to Sale, due to that declining rainfall over winter and spring, those areas are a lot drier than what they ordinarily would be," he said.

"The overall state residual bushfire risk is still below the target of 70 per cent as a result of some of the great work of fire authorities.

"As we start to see temperatures start to climb into the high 30s, with the release of the outlook, we're asking communities to start doing their bit and having that bushfire survival plan and start making preparations around their home."